<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0124-5996</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista de Economía Institucional]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev.econ.inst.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0124-5996</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Externado de Colombia]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0124-59962021000200137</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.18601/01245996.v23n45.07</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Probabilidad e incertidumbre en Keynes. Una revisión de tipo bayesiano]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Uncertainty and probability in Keynes. A Bayesian-type review]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="pt"><![CDATA[Probabilidade e incerteza em Keynes. Uma revisão do tipo bayesiano]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Jacobo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Juan Esteban]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Externado de Colombia  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Bogotá ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>23</volume>
<numero>45</numero>
<fpage>137</fpage>
<lpage>162</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0124-59962021000200137&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0124-59962021000200137&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0124-59962021000200137&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Este articulo analiza el concepto de probabilidad en la obra de Keynes y propone un método para formalizar la noción de la incertidumbre en la Teoría general utilizando el teorema de Bayes y el principio de máxima entropía. Una de las principales conclusiones es que, a pesar de compartir su rechazo del enfoque frecuentita de la estadística, es poco razonable pensar que no se pueden determinar probabilidades numéricas, aunque se cumpla algún criterio de objetividad.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract This paper analyzes the concept of probability in Keynes' work and proposes a method for formalizing the notion of uncertainty in the General Theory using Bayes' theorem and the principle of maximum entropy. One of the main conclusions is that, despite sharing his rejection of the frequentist approach to statistics, it is unreasonable to think that numerical probabilities cannot be determined, even if some criterion of objectivity is met.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="pt"><p><![CDATA[Resumo Este artigo analisa o conceito de probabilidade na obra de Keynes e propõe um método para formalizar a noção de incerteza na Teoria Geral usando o teorema de Bayes e o princípio da entropia máxima. Uma das principais conclusões é que, apesar de compartilhar sua rejeição à abordagem frequentista da estatística, não é razoável pensar que as probabilidades numéricas não podem ser determinadas, mesmo que algum critério objetivo seja atendido.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[entropía]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[teorema de Bayes]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[incertidumbre]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Keynes]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[JEL: B16, B31, C11]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[entropy]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Bayes' theorem]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[uncertainty]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Keynes]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[JEL: B16, B31, C11]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[entropia]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[teorema de Bayes]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[incerteza]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Keynes]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[JEL: B16, B31, C11]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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