<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0304-2847</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista Facultad Nacional de Agronomía Medellín]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. Fac. Nac. Agron. Medellín]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0304-2847</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias - Universidad Nacional de Colombia]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0304-28472020000209227</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.15446/rfnam.v73n2.82833</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Financial analysis of potential Pinus patula plantations in Antioquia, Colombia]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Análisis financiero de potenciales plantaciones de Pinus patula en Antioquia, Colombia]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ramirez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Laura]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aaf"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Orrego]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Sergio A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Restrepo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Héctor I.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional de Colombia Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Medellín ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,University of Georgia Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>USA</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,American Forest Management, Inc  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>United States</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>73</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<fpage>9227</fpage>
<lpage>9242</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0304-28472020000209227&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0304-28472020000209227&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0304-28472020000209227&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT The establishment of commercial forest plantations requires the selection of sites where reasonable profitability can be attained. A financial analysis was made for the identification of the most suitable areas for the establishment of new Pinus patula plantations in the central region of Antioquia, Colombia. The analysis was performed assuming basic silvicultural treatments at the establishment but no management during the entire rotation period. Volume yield data at the stand level was obtained from a previously fitted model that uses biophysical variables and stand density as predictors. The estimated stand volume, a detailed cash flow, and a derived stumpage price were combined to perform a financial analysis. The Land Expectation Value (LEV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) at the optimal rotation age, along with their spatial variation, were calculated in this study. Results suggest that the estimated volume and the current stumpage price are not sufficient to guarantee reasonable profitability for new timberland investments. While the LEV was negative, the IRR was in the range 4.1±1.5%, which is less than the discount rate of 6.8% used in the financial analysis. However, a positive LEV and an IRR at 8% would be achieved if forest productivity increases by 20% because of silvicultural practices or costs reduction in a similar proportion (obtaining IRRs up to 8.4%). Moreover, if the government provide subsidies, the IRR would increase up to 10.3% (without requiring an increase in productivity or a decrease in costs) on sites with high growth potential (mean annual increment greater than 16 m3 ha-1 year-1), and close to the mills (less than 45 km radii).]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN El establecimiento de plantaciones forestales comerciales requiere seleccionar sitios que garanticen una rentabilidad razonable para inversiones forestales. Se realizó un análisis financiero con el fin de identificar las áreas con mejor aptitud para el establecimiento de nuevas plantaciones de Pinus patula en la zona central de Antioquia, Colombia. El análisis se realizó asumiendo tratamientos silviculturales básicos en el establecimiento, pero ningún manejo durante el período de rotación. Información de rendimiento forestal en volumen a nivel de rodal se obtuvo de un modelo previamente ajustado, el cual depende de variables biofísicas y de la densidad de rodal. El volumen estimado a nivel de rodal, un flujo de caja detallado, y el precio de la madera en pie, se usaron en el análisis financiero. Se calcularon como criterios de bondad de inversión el Valor Económico del Suelo (VES) y la Tasa Interna de Retorno (TIR) a la edad óptima de rotación, así como su variación espacial. Los resultados sugieren que el volumen estimado de madera y los actuales precios no son lo suficientemente altos para garantizar una rentabilidad razonable para el establecimiento de nuevas plantaciones. Mientras el VES estimado fue negativo, la TIR encontrada se ubicó en el rango 4,1±1,5%, la cual es menor a la tasa de descuento de 6,8% usada en el análisis financiero. No obstante, valores positivos de VES pueden alcanzarse si se realizaran tratamientos silviculturales que conlleven a un aumento de la productividad forestal de 20%, o a una reducción de costos de la misma magnitud, alcanzando una TIR de hasta 8,4%. En un escenario de subsidios a la reforestación proporcionados por el gobierno, la TIR podría incrementar hasta 10,3%, sin requerir aumentos en la productividad o disminución de los costos, en sitios con alto potencial de crecimiento (incremento medio anual mayor a 16 m3 ha-1 año-1), y localizados a un radio de 45 km de los centros de transformación.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Land expectation value]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Rate of return Stumpage price]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Timberland investments]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Valor económico del suelo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Tasa de retorno]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Precio en pie]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Inversiones forestales]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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