<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0370-3908</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista de la Academia Colombiana de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. acad. colomb. cienc. exact. fis. nat.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0370-3908</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Academia Colombiana de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0370-39082022000300769</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.18257/raccefyn.1705</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Implicaciones metodológicas e inconsistencias de la Tercera Comunicación Nacional sobre Cambio Climático de Colombia]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Methodological implications and inconsistencies of Colombia's Third National Communication on Climate Change]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Arias]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Paola A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Villegas]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Laura D.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mesa]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Oscar J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pabón]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[José D.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Arango]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Jacobo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Arango-Aramburo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Santiago]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Armenteras]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Dolors]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Berrouet]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Lina]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Barahona]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Rolando]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Barco]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Janet]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cardona]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Yuley]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Carvajal-Escobar]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Yesid]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ceballos-Bonilla]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Lina L]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cerón]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Wilmar L.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Escobar]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Jaime H]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[González]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Catalina]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hoyos]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Isabel &#1057;.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hoyos]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Natalia]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Jaramillo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Carlos]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Jiménez-Sánchez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Giovanni]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Martínez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J. Alejandro]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Poveda]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Germán]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Quesada]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Benjamín]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Quintero-Vallejo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Estela]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rendón]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ángela M]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ruiz-Carrascal]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Daniel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Salazar]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Alejandro]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Salazar]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Juan F.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Sánchez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Adriana]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Vieira]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Sara C.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Villegas]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Juan Camilo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Villegas-Palacio]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Clara]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Zuluaga]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Manuel D.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Antioquia Facultad de Ingeniería ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Medellín ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional de Colombia  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Medellín ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional de Colombia  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Bogotá ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af4">
<institution><![CDATA[,Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT)  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Palmira ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af5">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional de Colombia Facultad de Ciencias ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Bogotá ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af6">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Antioquia Facultad de Ingeniería ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Medellín ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af7">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional de Colombia Departamento de Producción Animal Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Medellín ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af8">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Medellín Facultad de Ingeniería ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Medellín ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af9">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad del Valle  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Cali ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="A10">
<institution><![CDATA[,SIATA  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Medellín ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="A11">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad del Valle Departamento de Geografía Facultad de Humanidades]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Cali ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="A12">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad del Norte Departamento de Ingeniería Civil y Ambiental ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Barranquilla ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="A13">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de los Andes Departamento de Ciencias Biológicas ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Bogotá ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="A14">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad del Quindío Facultad de Ciencias Básicas y Tecnologías ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Armenia ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="A15">
<institution><![CDATA[,Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Ciudad de Panamá ]]></addr-line>
<country>Panama</country>
</aff>
<aff id="A16">
<institution><![CDATA[,Fuerza Aérea Colombiana  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Bogotá ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="A17">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Antioquia Facultad de Ingeniería ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Medellín ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="A18">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad del Rosario Facultad de Ciencias Naturales ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Bogotá ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="A19">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad CES Facultad de Ciencias y Biotecnología ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Medellín ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="A20">
<institution><![CDATA[,Columbia University Department of Ecology ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[New York ]]></addr-line>
<country>USA</country>
</aff>
<aff id="A21">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Agrícola de Islandia Facultad de Ciencias Ambientales y Forestales ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Reykjavík ]]></addr-line>
<country>Islandia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="A22">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad del Rosario Facultad de Ciencias Naturales ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Bogotá ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>46</volume>
<numero>180</numero>
<fpage>769</fpage>
<lpage>794</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0370-39082022000300769&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0370-39082022000300769&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0370-39082022000300769&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Las Comunicaciones Nacionales sobre Cambio Climático (CNCC) son un mecanismo para que los países informen sus avances en mitigación y adaptación, y constituyen uno de los elementos de base para la política sobre cambio climático a escala nacional. Colombia ha emitido tres CNCC. La tercera plantea un escenario que considera las proyecciones de diversos modelos incluidos en la quinta fase del Proyecto de Comparación de Modelos Acoplados (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP), el cual se estima como el promedio de las proyecciones correspondientes a las cuatro trayectorias de concentración representativa (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP) presentadas en el quinto reporte de evaluación del Panel Intergubernamental sobre Cambio Climático. Cada una de estas RCP representa una trayectoria de concentración de gases de efecto invernadero (GEI) para un escenario particular de crecimiento poblacional, económico y tecnológico que conduce a una posible trayectoria de evolución del sistema climático. En este estudio se comparan las proyecciones presentadas en la Tercera CNCC con las obtenidas directamente de los modelos empleados. Nuestros resultados demuestran que al utilizarse un promedio de RCP se pierden escenarios alternos que podrían ser importantes a la hora de considerar posibles futuros diferentes y anulan la utilidad de plantear diversas trayectorias de emisiones de GEI. Más aun, una comparación entre la Segunda y la Tercera CNCC muestra proyecciones de precipitación opuestas para diferentes regiones del país, lo cual es de particular importancia, pues el escenario de cambio climático planteado en la Tercera CNCC sirve de referencia para la toma de decisiones en materia de cambio climático a nivel nacional.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract The National Communications on Climate Change (NCCC) are a mechanism for countries to report on their progress in mitigation and adaptation, and are a basis for climate change policy at the national level. Colombia has issued three NCCCs. The third CNCC presents a scenario that considers projections from various models included in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Comparison Project (CMIP). This scenario is estimated as the average of the projections corresponding to the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) presented in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Each of these RCPs represents a greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectory for a particular scenario of population, economic and technological growth, leading to a possible trajectory of climate system evolution. Our article compares the projections presented in the Third CNCC with those obtained directly from the models used. Our results show that by using an average CPR, alternative scenarios that could be important in considering different possible futures are lost, negating the usefulness of proposing different GHG emission trajectories. Moreover, a comparison between the Second and Third CNCC shows opposite precipitation projections for different regions of the country. This is particularly important because the climate change scenario proposed in the Third CNCC is a reference scenario for climate change decision-making at the national level. (No está incluido el resumen en inglés)]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Cambio climático]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Comunicaciones nacionales de cambio climático (CNCC)]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Proyecciones climáticas, Escenario de cambio climático de Colombia]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[CMIP5]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Climate change]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[National Communications on Climate Change]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Climate projections]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Climate change scenario for Colombia]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[CMIP5]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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