<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1657-4206</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Ecos de Economía]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[ecos.econ.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1657-4206</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad EAFIT]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1657-42062016000200023</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.17230/ecos.2016.43.2</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Fluctuations in Colombia]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Efectos macroeconómicos de las fluctuaciones de los precios del petróleo en Colombia]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Quero-Virla]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Leonardo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad del Zulia  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Venezuela</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>07</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>07</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>20</volume>
<numero>43</numero>
<fpage>23</fpage>
<lpage>38</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1657-42062016000200023&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1657-42062016000200023&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1657-42062016000200023&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract This research aims to study the effects of oil price changes on the Colombian economy during 2001:Q1 to 2016:Q2. A structural vector auto-regression model in the spirit of Blanchardand Galí (2010) is estimated under arecursive identification scheme, where unexpected oil price variations are exogenous relative to the contemporaneous values of the remaining variables. Drawing on impulse-response estimates, a 10% increase in the oil price generates the following accumulated orthogonalized responses: i) a contemporaneous 0.4% increase in GDP growth, later on the effect reaches its maximum in the first quarter (1.7% increase) and starts to decay after two quarters; ii) a contemporaneous 1.2% decrease in unemployment, then the effect remains slightly negative andreaches its maximum after ten quarters (5.1% decrease); iii) a contemporaneous 0.9% decrease in inflation, followed by an 0.2% increase by quarter three, and thereafter the effect remains slightly negative.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Esta investigación busca estudiar los efectos de las variaciones en el precio del petróleo en la economía Colombiana durante 2001:T1 a 2016:T2. Un modelo estructural de vectores auto-regresivos, similar al de Blanchard y Galí (2010), es estimado bajo un esquema de identificación recursiva, donde las variaciones inesperadas en el precio nominal del petróleo, son exógenas con respecto a los valores contemporáneos del resto de las variables. Con base a las funciones de impulso-respuesta, un aumento del 10% en el precio del petróleo genera las siguientes respuestas acumuladas ortogonalizadas: i) incremento contemporáneo de 0.4% en el crecimiento del producto, luego el efecto alcanza su máximo en el primer trimestre (incremento de 1.7%) y comienza a decaer luego de dos trimestres; ii) disminución contemporánea de 1.2% en el desempleo, seguidamente el efecto se mantiene ligeramente negativo y alcanza su máximo luego de diez trimestres (disminución de 5.1%); iii) disminución contemporánea de 0.9% en la inflación, seguida de un aumento de 0.2% en el tercer trimestre, y luego el efecto se mantiene ligeramente negativo.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[SVAR]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[impulseresponse]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[oil market]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Colombia.]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[SVAR]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[impulsorespuesta]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[mercado petrolero]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Colombia.]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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