<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1657-4206</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Ecos de Economía]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[ecos.econ.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1657-4206</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad EAFIT]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1657-42062019000100006</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.17230/ecos.2019.48.1</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[The impact of the output gap on The unemployment rate: evidence from Mexico, 1987Q1-2018Q4]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[El impacto de la brecha del producto sobre la tasa de desempleo: evidencia para México, 1987Q1-2018Q4]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[García-Ramos]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Manuel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,UNAM  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>23</volume>
<numero>48</numero>
<fpage>6</fpage>
<lpage>15</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1657-42062019000100006&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1657-42062019000100006&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1657-42062019000100006&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract Using quarterly data for Mexico from 1987Q1 to 2018Q4, we measure the impact of output gap on the unemployment rate based on a State-Space model with time-varying coefficients. From an econometric modeling point of view, this model allows asymmetrical interactions between the output gap and unemployment rate. Our principal conclusions are: 1) The long-term equilibrium unemployment rate is equal to 3.06; 2) the unemployment rate does not exhibit hysteresis; 3) when GDP is lower than potential output, the impact of its growth on the unemployment rate is -0.43 percent points; and 4) when GDP is higher than potential output, the impact of its growth on the unemployment rate is close to zero. It implies that the reaction of the unemployment rate to output gap is different when the output gap is increasing from that when the output gap is decreasing; i.e., the output gap does not have the same effect on the unemployment rate over time. JEL Classification: C32, C52, E24, E32, O47]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Usando datos trimestrales para México de 1988Q1 a 2018Q4, medimos el impacto de la brecha del producto sobre la tasa de desempleo con base en un modelo estado-espacio de coeficientes que varían en el tiempo. Desde el punto de vista de la modelación econométrica, este modelo permite interacciones asimétricas entre la brecha del producto y la tasa de desempleo. Nuestras principales conclusiones son: 1) la tasa de desempleo de largo plazo es igual a 3.06; 2) la tasa de desempleo no exhibe histéresis; 3) cuando el PIB es menor que el producto potencial, el impacto de su crecimiento sobre la tasa de desempleo es de -0.43 puntos porcentuales; y 4) cuando el PIB es mayor que el producto potencial, el impacto de su crecimiento sobre la tasa de desempleo es cercano a cero. Esto implica que la reacción de la tasa de desempleo a la brecha del producto es diferente cuando la brecha del producto crece que cuando disminuye; es decir, la brecha del producto no tiene el mismo efecto sobre la tasa de desempleo a través del tiempo. JEL Classification: C32, C52, E24, E32, O47]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Unemployment]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Hysteresis]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Output gap]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Potential output]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[State-space model]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Timevarying coefficients model]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Okun&#8217;s law]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Desempleo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Histéresis]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Brecha del producto]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Producto potencial]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Modelo estado-espacio]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Modelo de coeficientes variables]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Ley de Okun]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
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<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[The Okun curve is non-linear]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Economics Letters]]></source>
<year>2001</year>
<volume>70</volume>
<page-range>253-7</page-range></nlm-citation>
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<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Weiner]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[New Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Economic Review]]></source>
<year>1993</year>
<volume>78</volume>
<numero>4</numero>
<issue>4</issue>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
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</back>
</article>
