<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1657-4206</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Ecos de Economía]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[ecos.econ.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1657-4206</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad EAFIT]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1657-42062020000200080</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.17230/ecos.2020.51.4</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[POTENTIAL GROWTH IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: WAS THERE A PRE-PANDEMIC NEW NORMAL?]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Crecimiento potencial en Centroamérica y la República Dominicana: ¿Hubo una nueva normalidad pre-pandemia?]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Maldonadoa]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Leonardo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Inter-American Development Bank  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>24</volume>
<numero>51</numero>
<fpage>80</fpage>
<lpage>115</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1657-42062020000200080&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1657-42062020000200080&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1657-42062020000200080&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract This paper explores the potential growth of Central America and the Dominican Republic after the 2008-2009 crisis to shed light on their 2020 pre-pandemic macroeconomic vulnerability and to ascertain that the observed path is deviating more than before from its potential. Using Hodrick-Prescott filter by constrained minimization, production function, regime-switching models, and Bayesian model averaging, the main findings suggest a pre-pandemic regional slowdown. By country, there are mixed results. This scenario was not only driven by international factors but by particularities; on the one hand, statistical models show higher potential growth, and, in a less favorable context, the region would be closer to the structural performance; on the other hand, individual factors are hindering potential growth.  JEL Codes: C13; E23; E32; O47.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen El documento explora el crecimiento potencial de Centroamérica y la República Dominicana luego de la crisis 2008-2009 para dar idea de su vulnerabilidad macroeconómica previo a la pandemia de 2020 y para comprobar si la senda observada se desvía de su potencial más que antes. Usando el filtro Hodrick- Prescott por minimización restringida, los modelos de función de producción, de cambio de régimen, y el promedio bayesiano de modelos, los principales hallazgos sugieren una ralentización regional del crecimiento pre-pandemia. Los resultados son mixtos por país. Este escenario no solo está influenciado por factores internacionales sino por particularidades; por un lado, los modelos estadísticos muestran un crecimiento potencial mayor y, en un contexto menos favorable, la región estaría más cercana al desempeño estructural; por el otro lado, los factores individuales limitan el crecimiento potencial.  JEL Codes: C13; E23; E32; O47.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Bayesian model averaging]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[output gap]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[potential growth]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[production function]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[regime switching.]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
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