<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1657-4206</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Ecos de Economía]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[ecos.econ.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1657-4206</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad EAFIT]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1657-42062021000200004</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Using mobility measures to explain short-run economic performance during Covid-19's first wave]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Las medidas de movilidad como explicación de los resultados económicos a corto plazo durante la primera ola de la COVID-19]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Barja]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Gover]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Católica Boliviana  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Bolivia</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>25</volume>
<numero>53</numero>
<fpage>4</fpage>
<lpage>38</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1657-42062021000200004&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1657-42062021000200004&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1657-42062021000200004&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract People's mobility behavior and self-correcting economic forces are shown to be key variables in explaining the observed contraction and recovery of the Bolivian economy during COVID-19's first wave. ARMAX models are used to explain the growth rate of the monthly index of economic activity in terms of changes in the rate of mobility measures produced by Google. These measures are argued to capture the effect of the complex dynamics of COVID-19 epidemiology and COVID-19 policies on people's decisions when balancing health risks with inevitable economic sacrifice, thus affecting aggregate economic activity.  JEL Classification: C22, O54, E32, E71, I18.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen El comportamiento de la movilidad de las personas y las fuerzas económicas autocorrectivas demuestran ser variables claves a la hora de explicar la contracción y recuperación observadas en la economía boliviana durante la primera ola de la COVID-19. Se usaron modelos ARMAX para explicar la tasa de crecimiento del índice mensual de actividad económica en términos de los cambios en la tasa de medidas de movilidad generadas por Google, las cuales pretenden capturar el efecto de las dinámicas complejas de la epidemiología y las políticas de la COVID-19 en las decisiones de las personas al sopesar los riesgos para la salud con el inevitable sacrificio económico, afectando así a la actividad económica agregada.  JEL Classification: C22, O54, E32, E71, I18.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[ARMAX models]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Google mobility]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[COVID-19 policies]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Economic activity]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Bolivia.]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Modelos ARMAX]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Google movilidad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Políticas COVID-19]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Actividad económica]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Bolivia.]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
<ref-list>
<ref id="B1">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bakker]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[B.B.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Goncalves]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Covid-19 in Latin America: A high toll on lives and livelihoods]]></source>
<year>2021</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B2">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bargain]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[O.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Aminjonov]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[U]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Poverty and Covid-19 in developing countries]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Bordeaux Economics Working Papers BxWP2020-08]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B3">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Graphing and measuring Covid&#8217;s first wave impact on the Bolivian economic activity: Facing the unknown]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Latin American Journal of Economic Development]]></source>
<year>2021</year>
<volume>36</volume>
<page-range>7-42</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B4">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Box]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G.E.P.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Jenkins]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G.M]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Time series analysis, forecasting and control]]></source>
<year>1970</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[San Francisco ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Holden- Day]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B5">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Box]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G.E.P.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Jenkins]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G.M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Reinsel]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G.C]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Time series analysis, forecasting and control]]></source>
<year>1994</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Englewood Cliffs, NJ ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Prentice-Hall]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B6">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Carrieri]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[V.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[De Paola]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gioia]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[F]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[The health-wealth trade-off during the Covid-19 pandemic: Community matters.]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[IZA Institute of Labor Economics Discussion paper IZA DP 13943]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B7">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Castilleja-Vargas]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Bolivia: Hacia una recuperación económica resiliente y sostenible en tiempos post Covid-19.]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo Documento de Discusión IDB-DP-00797]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B8">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ceylan]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.F.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ozkan]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[B.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mulazimogullari]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[E]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Historical evidence for economic effects of Covid-19]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[The European Journal of health economics]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
<volume>21</volume>
<page-range>817-23</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B9">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Davidson]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[MacKinnon]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.G]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Econometric theory and methods]]></source>
<year>2004</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[New York ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Oxford University Press]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B10">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<source><![CDATA[Covid-19 Observatory in Latin America and the Caribbean: Economic and social impact]]></source>
<year>2021</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[United Nations]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B11">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Famiglietti]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Laibovici]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[F]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[The impact of health and economic policies on the spread of Covid-19 and economic activity.]]></source>
<year>2021</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2021-005B]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
</ref-list>
</back>
</article>
