<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1657-4206</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Ecos de Economía]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[ecos.econ.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1657-4206</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad EAFIT]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1657-42062021000200067</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Oráculos en pandemia: pronósticos del crecimiento económico colombiano en 2020]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Oracles in Pandemic: Forecasts of Colombian Economic Growth in 2020]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Perdomo Munévar]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[John Mauro]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lozada González]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Camilo Andrés]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Torres Pinzón]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Andrés Felipe]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional de Colombia  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional de Colombia  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional de Colombia  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>25</volume>
<numero>53</numero>
<fpage>67</fpage>
<lpage>87</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1657-42062021000200067&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1657-42062021000200067&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1657-42062021000200067&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Pronosticar ha permitido que la disciplina económica gane poder y relevancia social, aunque también la ha expuesto al desprestigio público. En medio de la incertidumbre que ha configurado la COVID-19, estudiamos los determinantes de los pronósticos del crecimiento económico anual colombiano para el año 2020. Encontramos que la variabilidad de los pronósticos, que oscilan entre +0.7% y -13.8%, no depende de la evolución de la situación epidemiológica, ni de las características institucionales de quienes emiten los pronósticos. La variabilidad se explica principalmente por el promedio de los pronósticos anteriores más recientes y por la tasa de intervención del banco central. Códigos de clasificación JEL: A11, B40, C53.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract Forecasting has allowed the economic discipline to gain power and social relevance, although it has also exposed it to public discredit. In the uncertainty that has shaped COVID-19, the determinants of Colombian annual economic growth forecasts for the year 2020 were studied and it was found that the variability of the forecasts, which range from +0,7 to -13,8%, does not depend on the evolution of the epidemiological situation, nor the institutional characteristics of those forecasting. The variability is mainly explained by the average of the most recent previous forecasts and by the central bank intervention rate. Códigos de clasificación JEL: A11, B40, C53.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Pronósticos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Crecimiento Económico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Pandemia.]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Forecasts]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Economic growth]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Pandemic.]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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