<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1657-9534</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Colombia Médica]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Colomb. Med.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1657-9534</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad del Valle]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1657-95342019000100013</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.25100/cm.v40i1.2521</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Validation of a predictive model for successful vaginal birth after cesarean section]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Validación de modelos predictivos para parto vaginal exitoso después de cesárea]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Fonseca]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Javier Enrique]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aaf"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rodriguez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Juliana Lucía]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Maya Salazar]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Durley]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad del Valle Facultad de Salud Escuela de Medicina]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Cali ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Hospital Universitario del Valle Evaristo García  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Cali ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>50</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<fpage>13</fpage>
<lpage>21</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1657-95342019000100013&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1657-95342019000100013&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1657-95342019000100013&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract  Introduction:  A strategy for reducing the number of cesarean sections is to allow vaginal delivery after cesarean section.  Objective:  To validate two predictive models, Metz and Grobman, for successful vaginal delivery after a cesarean section.  Methods:  Retrospective cohort study involving women with previous history of a previous segmental cesarean section, single pregnancy &#8805;37 weeks and cephalic presentation. The proportion of vaginal delivery in all pregnant women was determined, and it was compared with those (women) with successful delivery after cesarean section. Then, there were elaborated the models, and their predictive capacity was determined by curve-receiver-operator.  Results:  The proportion of successful delivery in pregnant women with a previous cesarean section and indication of vaginal delivery was 85.64%. The observed proportion of birth for each decile predicted in the Grobman model was less than 15%, except for the 91-100% decile, where it was 64.09%; the area under the curve was 0.95. For the Metz model, the actual successful delivery rate was lower than predicted in scores between 4 and 14, and within expected for a score between 15 and 23; the area under the curve was 0.94.  Conclusions:  The vaginal delivery rate after cesarean was lower than expected according to the predictive models of Grobman and Metz. The implementation of these models in a prospective way can lead to a higher rate of successful birth.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen  Introducción:  Una estrategia de reducción del número de cesáreas es permitir el parto vaginal después de cesárea.  Objetivo:  Validar dos modelos predictivos, Metz y Grobman, para el parto vaginal exitoso después de una cesárea.  Métodos: Estudio de cohorte retrospectivo con mujeres con antecedente de una cesárea segmentaria previa, embarazo único &#8805;37 semanas y presentación cefálica . Se determinó la proporción de parto vaginal en todas las gestantes y se comparó con aquellas con parto exitoso después de cesárea, se elaboró los modelos y se determinó la capacidad predictiva de ellos mediante curva-receptor-operador.  Resultados: La proporción de parto exitoso en gestantes con cesárea previa e indicación de parto vaginal fue 85.64%. La proporción de parto observado para cada decil predicho en el modelo de Grobman fue inferior al 15%, excepto para el decil 91-100%, en el que fue 64.09%, el área bajo la curva fue 0.95. Para el modelo de Metz, la proporción de parto exitoso real fue menor a lo predicho en puntajes entre 4-14 y dentro de lo esperado para puntaje entre 15-23, con un área bajo la curva de 0.94.  Conclusiones: La tasa de parto vaginal después de cesárea fue menor a lo esperado de acuerdo a los modelos predictivos de Grobman y Metz. La implementación de estos modelos en forma prospectiva puede llevar una mayor tasa de parto exitoso.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Vaginal birth after cesarean]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[cohort study]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[validation study]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[repeat cesarean section]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[obstetric delivery]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[trial of labor]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[labor presentation]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[cervical dilatation]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Parto vaginal después de cesárea]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[estudio de cohorte]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[estudio de validación]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[cesárea repetida]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[parto obstétrico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[trabajo de parto]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[presentación en trabajo de parto]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[dilatación cervical]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Predicting the chance of vaginal delivery after one cesarean section validation and elaboration of a published prediction model]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Eur J Obstet Gynecol Reprod Biol]]></source>
<year>2015</year>
<volume>188</volume>
<page-range>88-94</page-range></nlm-citation>
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</article>
