<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1657-9534</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Colombia Médica]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Colomb. Med.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1657-9534</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad del Valle]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1657-95342020000200009</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.25100/cm.v51i2.4277</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Mathematical model and COVID-19]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Modelos matemáticos y el COVID-19]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Grillo Ardila]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Elvia Karina]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Santaella-Tenorio]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Julián]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aaf"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Guerrero]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Rodrigo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bravo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Luis Eduardo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aaf"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad del Valle Facultad de Salud Doctorado en Salud]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Cali ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad del Valle Facultad de Salud Escuela de Salud Pública]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Cali ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Pontificia Universidad Javeriana Maestría en Epidemiología Clínica ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Cali ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af4">
<institution><![CDATA[,Registro Poblacional de Cáncer de Cali  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Cali ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af5">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad del Valle Facultad de Salud Departamento de Patología]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Cali ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>51</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1657-95342020000200009&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1657-95342020000200009&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1657-95342020000200009&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract Currently, there are several mathematical models that have been developed to understand the dynamics of COVID-19 infection. However, the difference in the sociocultural contexts between countries requires the specific adjustment of these estimates to each scenario. This article analyses the main elements used for the construction of models from epidemiological patterns, to describe the interaction, explain the dynamics of infection and recovery, and to predict possible scenarios that may arise with the introduction of public health measures such as social distancing and quarantines, specifically in the case of the pandemic unleashed by the new SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 virus.  Comment:  Mathematical models are highly relevant for making objective and effective decisions to control and eradicate the disease. These models used for COVID-19 have supported and will continue to provide information for the selection and implementation of programs and public policies that prevent associated complications, reduce the speed of the virus spread and minimize the occurrence of severe cases of the disease that may collapse health systems.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen En la actualidad existen varios modelos matemáticos que han sido desarrollados para entender la dinámica de la infección por COVID-19. Sin embargo, la diferencia en los contextos socioculturales entre países hace necesario el ajuste específico de estas estimaciones a cada escenario. Este artículo analiza los principales elementos usados para la construcción de los modelos a partir de patrones epidemiológicos, para lograr describir la interacción, explicar la dinámica de infección y recuperación, así como para predecir posibles escenarios que pueden presentarse con la introducción de medidas en salud pública como el distanciamiento social y cuarentenas, específicamente para el caso de la pandemia desatada por el nuevo virus SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19.  Comentario:  Los modelos matemáticos son de gran relevancia para la toma de decisiones objetivas y eficaces para controlar y erradicar la enfermedad. Estos modelos usados para el COVID-19, han apoyado y seguirán aportando información para la selección e implementación de programas y políticas públicas que prevengan complicaciones asociadas, disminuyan la velocidad de propagación del virus y minimicen la aparición de casos severos de enfermedad que puedan colapsar los sistemas de salud.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[COVID-19]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[mathematical models]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[basic reproduction number]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[COVID-19]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelos matemáticos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[número reproductivo básico]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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