<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1657-9534</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Colombia Médica]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Colomb. Med.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1657-9534</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad del Valle]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1657-95342020000300003</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.25100/cm.v51i3.4534</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[COVID-19: Adaptation of a model to predicting healthcare resources needs in Valle del Cauca, Colombia]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[COVID-19: Predicción de las necesidades de recursos sanitarios en el Valle del Cauca, Colombia]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Iragorri]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Nicolas]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aaf"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gómez-Restrepo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Carlos]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Barrett]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Kali]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aaf"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A a"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A4 "/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Af5"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Herrera]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Socrates]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aaf"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hurtado]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Isabel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Khan]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Yasin]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aaf"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A a"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A5"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mac]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Stephen]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aaf"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Naimark]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[David]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aaf"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pechlivanoglou]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Petros]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aaf"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A0"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rosselli]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Diego]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Toro]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Dilian]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Villamizar]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Pedro]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ximenes]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Raphael]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aaf"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A2"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Zapata]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Helmer]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Sander]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Beate]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aaf"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A a"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A13"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,University of Toronto Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Toronto ]]></addr-line>
<country>Canada</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,University Health Network Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Toronto ]]></addr-line>
<country>Canada</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Pontificia Universidad Javeriana Facultad de Medicina ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Bogotá ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af4">
<institution><![CDATA[,University Health Network  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Toronto ]]></addr-line>
<country>Canada</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af5">
<institution><![CDATA[,University of Toronto Interdepartmental Division of Critical Care Medicine ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Toronto ]]></addr-line>
<country>Canada</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af6">
<institution><![CDATA[,Comité Público Privado de Expertos en Salud COPESA  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Cali ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af7">
<institution><![CDATA[,Centro de Investigación Científica Caucaseco  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Cali ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af8">
<institution><![CDATA[,Secretaría Departamental de Salud  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Cali ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af9">
<institution><![CDATA[,Sunnybrook Hospital  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Toronto ]]></addr-line>
<country>Canada</country>
</aff>
<aff id="A10">
<institution><![CDATA[,The Hospital for Sick Children  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Toronto ]]></addr-line>
<country>Canada</country>
</aff>
<aff id="A11">
<institution><![CDATA[,Pontificia Universidad Javeriana Facultad de Medicina ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Cali ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="A12">
<institution><![CDATA[,Fundação Getúlio Vargas Escola de Matemática Aplicada ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Rio de Janeiro RJ]]></addr-line>
<country>Brazil</country>
</aff>
<aff id="A13">
<institution><![CDATA[,Public Health Ontario  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Toronto ]]></addr-line>
<country>Canada</country>
</aff>
<aff id="A14">
<institution><![CDATA[,Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences ICES  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Toronto ]]></addr-line>
<country>Canada</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>51</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1657-95342020000300003&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1657-95342020000300003&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1657-95342020000300003&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract  Background:  Valle del Cauca is the region with the fourth-highest number of COVID-19 cases in Colombia (&gt;50,000 on September 7, 2020). Due to the lack of anti-COVID-19 therapies, decision-makers require timely and accurate data to estimate the incidence of disease and the availability of hospital resources to contain the pandemic.  Methods:  We adapted an existing model to the local context to forecast COVID-19 incidence and hospital resource use assuming different scenarios: (1) the implementation of quarantine from September 1st to October 15th (average daily growth rate of 2%); (2-3) partial restrictions (at 4% and 8% growth rates); and (4) no restrictions, assuming a 10% growth rate. Previous scenarios with predictions from June to August were also presented. We estimated the number of new cases, diagnostic tests required, and the number of available hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) beds (with and without ventilators) for each scenario.  Results:  We estimated 67,700 cases by October 15th when assuming the implementation of a quarantine, 80,400 and 101,500 cases when assuming partial restrictions at 4% and 8% infection rates, respectively, and 208,500 with no restrictions. According to different scenarios, the estimated demand for reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction tests ranged from 202,000 to 1,610,600 between September 1st and October 15th. The model predicted depletion of hospital and ICU beds by September 20th if all restrictions were to be lifted and the infection growth rate increased to 10%.  Conclusion:  Slowly lifting social distancing restrictions and reopening the economy is not expected to result in full resource depletion by October if the daily growth rate is maintained below 8%. Increasing the number of available beds provides a safeguard against slightly higher infection rates. Predictive models can be iteratively used to obtain nuanced predictions to aid decision-making]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen  Introducción:  Valle del Cauca es el departamento con el cuarto mayor número de casos de COVID-19 en Colombia (&gt;50,000 en septiembre 7, 2020). Debido a la ausencia de tratamientos efectivos para COVID-19, los tomadores de decisiones requieren de acceso a información actualizada para estimar la incidencia de la enfermedad, y la disponibilidad de recursos hospitalarios para contener la pandemia.  Métodos:  Adaptamos un modelo existente al contexto local para estimar la incidencia de COVID-19, y la demanda de recursos hospitalarios en los próximos meses. Para ello, modelamos cuatro escenarios hipotéticos: (1) el gobierno local implementa una cuarentena desde el primero de septiembre hasta el 15 de octubre (asumiendo una tasa promedio de infecciones diarias del 2%); (2-3) se implementan restricciones parciales (tasas de infección del 4% y 8%); (4) se levantan todas las restricciones (tasa del 10%). Los mismos escenarios fueron previamente evaluados entre julio y agosto, y los resultados fueron resumidos. Estimamos el número de casos nuevos, el número de pruebas diagnósticas requeridas, y el numero de camas de hospital y de unidad de cuidados intensivos (con y sin ventilación) disponibles, para cada escenario.  Resultados: El modelo estimó 67,700 casos a octubre 15 al asumir la implementación de una nueva cuarentena, 80,400 y 101,500 al asumir restricciones parciales al 4 y 8% de infecciones diarias, respectivamente, y 208,500 al asumir ninguna restricción. La demanda por pruebas diagnósticas (de reacción en cadena de la polimerasa) fue estimada entre 202,000 y 1,610,600 entre septiembre 1 y octubre 15, a través de los diferentes escenarios evaluados. El modelo estimó un agotamiento de camas de cuidados intensivos para septiembre 20 al asumir una tasa de infecciones del 10%. Conclusión: Se estima que el levantamiento paulatino de las restricciones de distanciamiento social y la reapertura de la economía no debería causar el agotamiento de recursos hospitalarios si la tasa de infección diaria se mantiene por debajo del 8%. Sin embargo, incrementar la disponibilidad de camas permitiría al sistema de salud ajustarse rápidamente a potenciales picos inesperados de infecciones nuevas. Los modelos de predicción deben ser utilizados de manera iterativa para depurar las predicciones epidemiológicas y para proveer a los tomadores de decisiones con información actualizada.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[COVID-19]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[SARS-CoV-2]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[healthcare resources]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[resource constraints]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Valle del Cauca]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Colombia]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Global health]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[COVID-19]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[SARS-CoV-2]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[recursos sanitarios]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[limitación de recursos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Valle del Cauca]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Colombia]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[salud global]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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