<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1794-6190</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Earth Sciences Research Journal]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Earth Sci. Res. J.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1794-6190</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional de Colombia]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1794-61902019000300225</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.15446/esrj.v23n3.74779</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Updating the probability of failure of rock wedges]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Actualización de la probabilidad de falla en curias de roca]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hernandez-Carrillo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Rodrigo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Beltrán]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Gloria]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional de Colombia  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional de Colombia  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>23</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<fpage>225</fpage>
<lpage>236</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1794-61902019000300225&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1794-61902019000300225&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1794-61902019000300225&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT In hard rock masses, discontinuities control the slope stability, rather than block matrix breakage. The relative position and orientation of joints and slope face define the most likely mechanisms of failure. Among these mechanisms, the wedge failure is one of the most common modes of failure in which joint sets dip and dip direction, slope geometry and direction, external forces (including water pressure and earthquake) and rock and joints mechanical properties control the stability. The determination of these input parameters is not straightforward, mainly due to their variability and the limited amount of information available. Besides, in most projects, input parameters come from different sources (e.g., expert opinion, back-calculation, laboratory tests, field test or different project stages). Therefore, this limited information from different sources should be appropriately incorporated into the stability analysis to assist the design and decision-making process. In this context, random sets arise as a powerful tool to combine different sources of information and to perform a reliability assessment under limited information. This feature makes it possible to update the probability of failure as new evidence is available. With this framework, this paper presents a reliability assessment of wedge stability in a rock slope of a sandstone quarry, located in Une Cundinamarca, where information on mechanical and geometrical parameters has been collected for 20 years. This approach allowed to update the probability of failure. As a result, an updated probability of failure raging between 0.04 and 0.25 was calculated.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN En rocas duras, las discontinuidades controlan la estabilidad de los taludes. La posición relativa entre las discontinuidades y el talud define el mecanismo de falla más probable. Entre estos mecanismos, la falla en curia es uno de los más comunes. La estabilidad de las cunas está controlada por la orientación de los planos de discontinuidad, la geometria y orientación del talud, las fuerzas externas (incluyendo presión de agua y sismo) y las propiedades mecánicas de las discontinuidades. La determinación de estas propiedades no es sencilla, debido a su variabilidad y cantidad limitada de información. Además, en muchos proyectos de ingenieria la información proviene de diferentes fuentes, tales como la opinión de expertos, retro-análisis, ensayos de laboratorio y pruebas de campo, en diferentes etapas de proyectos. Por lo tanto, los modelos de análisis deben ser capaces de incorporan información con estas características, para asistir el proceso de toma de decisiones en los proyectos de ingeniería. En este contexto, la teoría de los conjuntos aleatorios se constituye en una herramienta apropiada para combinar diferentes fuentes de información y efectuar análisis de confiabilidad cuando se tiene información escasa de los parámetros de entrada del modelo. Esta característica hace posible la actualización de la probabilidad de falla, a medida que aparece nueva información. Con este marco de referencia, este trabajo presenta el análisis de confiabilidad de la estabilidad de cunas en una mina de arenisca, localizada en Une, Cundinamarca, donde se ha recolectado información durante 20 anos. Este análisis permitió actualizar la probabilidad de falla. Como resultado se obtuvo una probabilidad de falla en un rango entre 0.04 y 0.25.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[probability of failure]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[rock wedge]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[random sets]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[reliability]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Incertidumbre]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[probabilidad de falla]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[cuha de roca]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[conjuntos aleatórios]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[confiabilidad]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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