<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1794-6190</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Earth Sciences Research Journal]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Earth Sci. Res. J.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1794-6190</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional de Colombia]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1794-61902021000100069</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.15446/esrj.v25n1.87255</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Historical precipitation patterns in the South-Southeast region of Mexico and future projections]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Patrones de precipitación históricos en la región Sur-Sureste de México y proyecciones futuras]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Andrade-Velázquez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Mercedes]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Medrano-Pérez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ojilve Ramón]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,CONACYT-Center for Global Change and Sustainability  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Villahermosa Tabasco]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>25</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<fpage>69</fpage>
<lpage>84</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1794-61902021000100069&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1794-61902021000100069&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1794-61902021000100069&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT This study analyzed climate change scenarios and their potential impact on water availability for the South-Southeast region (SSR) of Mexico. Precipitation patterns were examined using the Standardized Precipitation Index for three emissions scenarios, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5, during the periods of 1960-2016, 2015-2039 (near future), and 2075-2099 (far future). Historical changes in precipitation in the SSR indicated the presence of dry and wet events driven by El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, which are the regional climate modulators. However, the impact of these phases has not been quantified for the future. The results of our climate change projections show that the Grijalva and Usumacinta rivers and surrounding regions (Chiapas and Tabasco) will have an increase in the percentage of dry and wet events shortly (2015-2039), while there is a medium to a low probability of this occurrence in rest of the SSR. By 2075-2099, Grijalva and Usumacinta will continue to have a high probability of dry events due to climate change, and the Yucatan will also exhibit this behavior. RCP 4.5 was projected to be the wettest scenario for the study area, while RCP 8.5 projected an increase in dry events during both periods (2015-2039 and 2075-2099). RCP 6.0 projected a drier 2015-2039 and wetter 2075-2099.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN El presente estudio analiza los escenarios del cambio climático y su impacto potencial en la disponibilidad de agua para la Región Sur-Sureste (RSS) de México, examinando el comportamiento de los patrones de precipitación mediante el uso del Índice Estandarizado de Precipitación para tres escenarios RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 y RCP 8.5 durante los periodos 1960-2016, 2015-2039 (futuro cercano), y 2075-2099 (futuro lejano). Además de comprender los cambios históricos en la precipitación en la RSS, la cual muestra presencia de eventos secos y húmedos, donde El Niño-Oscilación del Sur, la Oscilación Decadal Pacífico y la Oscilación Multidecadal del Atlántico son los moduladores climáticos regionales. Sin embargo, para el futuro no se ha cuantificado el impacto de estos. Los resultados bajo las proyecciones de cambio climático muestran para el futuro cercano (2015-2039) en la región de los ríos Grijalva y Usumacinta (Chiapas y Tabasco) incrementos en el porcentaje de eventos secos como húmedos bajo las proyecciones de los escenarios de cambio climático, sea cual sea el escenario, mientras que el resto de la RSS tiene mediana o baja probabilidad de que esto ocurra. Para 2075-2099, Grijalva y Usumacinta continúan con una alta probabilidad de que bajo cambio climático haya eventos secos, Yucatán también tiene este comportamiento. RCP4.5 mostró ser el escenario más húmedo para la zona de estudio, mientras que el RCP8.5 presenta mayores eventos secos en la zona en ambos períodos (2015-2039 y 2075-2099). RCP6.0 se mostró más seco para 2015-2039 y más húmedo para 2075-2099.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Precipitation patterns]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[climate change scenarios]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[water availability]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[south-southeast Mexico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[patrones de precipitación]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[escenarios de cambio climático]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[disponibilidad de agua]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[sur-sureste de México]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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