<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1900-3803</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Entramado]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Entramado]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1900-3803</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Libre de Cali]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1900-38032021000200024</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.18041/1900-3803/entramado.2.7563</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Desarrollo de un modelo de planeación financiera para una compañía de alimentos utilizando simulación Monte Carlo]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Development of a financial planning model for the food's company using Monte Carlo simulation]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="pt"><![CDATA[Desenvolvimento de um modelo de planeamento financeiro para a empresa do ramo alimentar utilizando simulação Monte Carlo]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Delgado-Vélez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Luis David]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Institución Universitaria Esumer  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Medellín ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>17</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<fpage>24</fpage>
<lpage>40</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1900-38032021000200024&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1900-38032021000200024&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1900-38032021000200024&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN El objetivo es desarrollar un modelo de planeación financiera que permita calcular las ganancias probables de una compañía de alimentos en Colombia, en un horizonte temporal de seis años. La metodología utilizada es el Valor Presente Neto de sus flujos de caja libre, calculados a partir de 38 variables de entrada y de proceso que recogen el aspecto macroeconómico, las políticas financieras y los estados contables. Se realizaron 10.000 iteraciones con la técnica de simulación Montecarlo. Los resultados de la simulación indican que sus ganancias probables están entre $278.293 millones y $449.934 millones con un nivel de confianza del 90%. El análisis de sensibilidad del plan financiero permite concluir que la compañía debe reformular sus políticas financieras relacionadas con la administración del capital de trabajo, dado que la cartera y principalmente los inventarios tienen una influencia negativa sobre el VPN, según los coeficientes de regresión. CLASIFICACIÓN JEL B41, C15]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT The goal is to develop a financial planning model that allows calculating the probable profits of a food company in Colombia, in a time horizon of six years. The methodology used is the Net Present Value of its Free Cash Flow, calculated from 38 input and process variables that include the macroeconomic aspect, financial policies and financial statements. 10.000 iterations were carried out with the Montecarlo simulation technique. The simulation results indicate that its probable profits are between $278.293 million and y $449.934 million with a confidence level of 90%. The sensitivity analysis of the financial plan allows to conclude that the company should reformulate its financial policies related to the management of working capital, since the debt clients and mainly the inventories has a negative influence on the Net Present Value, according the regression coefficients. JEL CLASSIFICATION B41, C15]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="pt"><p><![CDATA[RESUMO O objectivo é desenvolver um modelo de planeamento financeiro que permita calcular os prováveis lucros de uma empresa alimentar na Colômbia, num horizonte temporal de seis anos. A metodologia utilizada é o Valor Presente Líquido dos seus fluxos de caixa livres, calculado a partir de 38 variáveis de entrada e de processo que recolhem o aspecto macroeconómico, as políticas financeiras e as declarações contabilísticas. Um total de 10.000 iterações foram realizadas utilizando a técnica de simulação de Monte Carlo. Os resultados da simulação indicam que os seus prováveis lucros se situam entre $278,293 milhões e $449,934 milhões com um nível de confiança de 90%. A análise de sensibilidade do plano financeiro permite concluir que a empresa deve reformular as suas políticas financeiras relacionadas com a gestão do capital de exploração, uma vez que a carteira e principalmente os inventários têm uma influência negativa no VPL, de acordo com os coeficientes de regressão. CLASSIFICAÇÃO JEL B4I, CI5]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Planeación Financiera]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[compañías de alimentos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[simulación Montecarlo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Valor Presente Neto]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Financial Planning]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[food companies]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Montecarlo Simulation]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Net Present Value]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Planeamento financeiro]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[empresas alimentares]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[simulação Monte Carlo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Valor Presente Líquido]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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