<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2011-2106</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista de Economía del Caribe]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[rev. econ. Caribe]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2011-2106</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Editorial Universidad del Norte]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2011-21062024000200004</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.14482/ecoca.34.268.564</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="pt"><![CDATA[Os Impactos do Sentimento do Mercado de Petróleo nas Variáveis Macroeconômicas: Uma Análise por Vetores Autorreqressivos em Painel]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[The Impacts of Oil Market Sentiment on Macroeconomic Variables: A Panel Vector Autoreqression Analysis]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Jesus]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Diego Pitta de]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Medeiros]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Elvira Helena Oliveira de]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Silva]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[José Alderir]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pereira Gomes]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Thiago Geovane]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,UFPB  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,UERN  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,UFPB  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="Af4">
<institution><![CDATA[,UFPB  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<numero>34</numero>
<fpage>4</fpage>
<lpage>4</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2011-21062024000200004&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2011-21062024000200004&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2011-21062024000200004&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="pt"><p><![CDATA[Resumo Nos últimos anos, as decisões da OPEP sobre a produção do petróleo têm causado mudanças no preço da commodity e, consequentemente, afetado as variáveis macroeconômicas dos países. Assim, o objetivo do artigo é construir um índice de sentimento do mercado de petróleo a partir dos relatórios mensais da OPEP e verificar os seus efeitos nas variáveis macroeconômicas nos países exportadores e importadores de petróleo. Para o cálculo da polaridade, utilizou-se um dicionário específico para textos econômicos e financeiros. Após a construção do índice, estimou-se um modelo VAR Painel. Os principais resultados mostraram que aumentos no sentimento do mercado de petróleo, ou seja, mais otimismo no mercado da commodity é capaz de elevar o produto da economia, reduzir a taxa de juros de curto prazo e elevar a taxa de inflação. Além disso, mais otimismo no mercado ocasiona preços menores do petróleo. Por fim, os resultados também ilustram que, apesar do efeito significativo do índice de sentimento sobre as variáveis do modelo, essa magnitude é inferior em relação aos choques do preço do petróleo.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract In recent years, OPEC decisions on oil production have caused changes in the price of the commodity and, consequently, have affected the macroeconomic variables of countries. Thus, the objective of the paper is to build an oil market sentiment index from OPEC's monthly reports and to verify its effects on macroeconomic variables in oil exporting and importing countries. To calculate the polarity, a specific dictionary for economic and financial texts was used. After building the index, a VAR Panel model was estimated. The main results showed that increases in oil market sentiment, that is, more optimism in the commodity market, is capable of raising the economy's product, reducing the short-term interest rate, and raising the inflation rate. In addition, more optimism in the market leads to lower oil prices. Finally, the results also illustrate that despite the significant effect of the sentiment index on the model variables, this magnitude is lower about oil price shocks.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[mercado de petróleo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[análise de sentimentos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[OPEP]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[VAR painel]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[impulso-resposta]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[oil market]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[sentiment analysis]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[OPEC]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[VAR panel]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[impulse-response]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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