<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2215-910X</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Suma de Negocios]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[suma neg.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2215-910X</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Fundación Universitaria Konrad Lorenz]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2215-910X2020000200149</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.14349/sumneg/2020.v11.n25.a6</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Modelo para la estimación del deterioro por riesgo de crédito]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Model for the estimation of impairment due to credit risk]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bermúdez Vera]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Iván Mauricio]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Manotas Duque]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Diego Fernando]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Olaya Ochoa]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Javier]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Santiago de Cali  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Cali Valle del Cauca]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad del Valle  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Cali Valle del Cauca]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad del Valle  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Cali Valle del Cauca]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>11</volume>
<numero>25</numero>
<fpage>149</fpage>
<lpage>157</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2215-910X2020000200149&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2215-910X2020000200149&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2215-910X2020000200149&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen El artículo desarrolla el modelo de estimación de pérdida esperada como soporte al Sistema de Administración del Riesgo de Crédito para una entidad de economía solidaria. Describe la construcción de un modelo de regresión logística para la estimación de la probabilidad de incumplimiento de sus asociados y valora el desempeño del modelo desde el poder de discriminación entre cumplidos e incumplidos mediante el método Hold Out repetido. Definido el modelo y estimada la probabilidad de incumplimiento de los asociados, se determina la tasa de recuperación de acuerdo con el tipo de garantía que presente cada crédito, permitiendo así estimar la pérdida esperada y las provisiones de cartera necesarias para la entidad.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract The article develops an estimation model for expected loss as support to the Credit Risk Management System for a corporation of social economy. it describes the setting of a logistic binary regression model to estimate the probability the non-compliance of its affiliates and, it evaluates the model's capacity to discriminate between compliance and non-compliance using the Hold Out recurrent method. Once the model is fixed and the probability is estimated, the recovery rate is determinate according to the guarantee offer by each credit. so, is possible the estimation of expected loss as well as the portfolio provisions required by each fund.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Riesgo de crédito]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[pérdida esperada]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelo Logit]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[método Hold Out]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[provisión de cartera]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Credit risk]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[expected loss]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Logit model]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Hold Out method]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[provision of portfolio]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
<ref-list>
<ref id="B1">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Abdolreza]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[N.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Farnoosh]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[F.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Konstantin H.]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Frank]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[J.]]></surname>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Fuzzy decision fusion approach for loss-given-default modeling]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[European Journal of Operational Research]]></source>
<year>2017</year>
<numero>262</numero>
<issue>262</issue>
<page-range>780-91</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B2">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Altman]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[E. I.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Saunders]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Credit risk measurement: Developments over the last 20 years]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Banking &amp; Finance]]></source>
<year>1997</year>
<volume>21</volume>
<numero>11-12</numero>
<issue>11-12</issue>
<page-range>1721-42</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B3">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bennouna]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Tkiouat]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Scoring in microfinance: Credit risk management tool -Case of Morocco-.]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Procedia Computer Science]]></source>
<year>2019</year>
<volume>148</volume>
<page-range>522-31</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B4">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bülbül]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hakenes]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[H.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lambert]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[What influences banks&#8217; choice of credit risk management practices? Theory and evidence]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Financial Stability]]></source>
<year>2019</year>
<volume>40</volume>
<page-range>1-14</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B5">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Caicedo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[E.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Claramunt]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Casanovas]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Medición del riesgo de crédito mediante modelos estructurales: una aplicación al mercado colombiano]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Cuadernos de Administración]]></source>
<year>2011</year>
<volume>24</volume>
<numero>42</numero>
<issue>42</issue>
<page-range>73-100</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B6">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cardozo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[H.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[IFRS/NIIF para el sector solidario. Aplicadas a las PYME: modelo catálogo de cuentas]]></source>
<year>2014</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Bogotá ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Ecoe Ediciones]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B7">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Chadwick]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M. G.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Effectiveness of monetary and macroprudential shocks on consumer credit growth and volatility in Turkey]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Central Bank Review]]></source>
<year>2018</year>
<volume>18</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<issue>2</issue>
<page-range>69-83</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B8">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<collab>Circulares externas 003 de 2013 y 006 de</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Superintendencia de la Economía Solidaria]]></source>
<year>2014</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B9">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<collab>Circular Básica Contable y Financiera 004 de</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Superintendencia de la Economía Solidaria]]></source>
<year>2008</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B10">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Dobson]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A. J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Barnett]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A. G.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[An introduction to generalized linear models]]></source>
<year>2018</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Florida ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Chapman &amp; Hall/CRC]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B11">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Echeverri]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[F.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Evaluación de modelos para la medición de riesgo de incumplimiento en créditos para una entidad financiera del Eje Cafetero]]></source>
<year>2006</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Manizales, Colombia ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional de Manizales]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B12">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Fang]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[F.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Chen]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Y.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[A new approach for credit scoring by directly maximizing the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Computational Statistics &amp; Data Analysis]]></source>
<year>2019</year>
<volume>133</volume>
<page-range>180-94</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B13">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gómez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J. E.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Orozco]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[I. P.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Un modelo de alerta temprana para el sistema financiero colombiano]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Borradores de Economía]]></source>
<year>2009</year>
<volume>565</volume>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B14">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[González]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[González]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[An alternative approach to predicting bank credit risk in Europe with Google data]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Finance Research Letters]]></source>
<year>2019</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B15">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hosmer]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D. W.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lemeshow]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Applied logistic regression]]></source>
<year>2004</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Nueva York ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Jhon Wiley and Sons]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B16">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Jokivuolle]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[E.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Peura]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Incorporating collateral value uncertainty in loss given default estimates and loan-to-value ratios]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[European Financial Management]]></source>
<year>2003</year>
<volume>9</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<issue>3</issue>
<page-range>299-314</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B17">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Kozodoi]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[N.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lessmann]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Papakonstantinou]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[K.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gatsoulis]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Y.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Baesens]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[B.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[A multi-objective approach for profit-driven feature selection in credit scoring]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Decision Support Systems]]></source>
<year>2019</year>
<volume>120</volume>
<page-range>106-17</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B18">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[López]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[F.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Pero ¿existe demanda solvente de crédito?]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Estrategia Financiera]]></source>
<year>2014</year>
<volume>315</volume>
<page-range>76-7</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B19">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Madeira]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Measuring the covariance risk of consumer debt portfolios]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control]]></source>
<year>2019</year>
<volume>104</volume>
<page-range>21-38</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B20">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Nelder]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J. A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Wedderburn]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R. W.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Generalized linear models]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Source Journal of the Royal Statistical Society]]></source>
<year>1972</year>
<volume>135</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<issue>3</issue>
<page-range>370-84</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B21">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ochoa]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Galeano]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[W.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Agudelo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Construcción de un modelo de scoring para el otorgamiento de crédito en una entidad financiera]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Perfil de Coyuntura Económica]]></source>
<year>2010</year>
<volume>16</volume>
<page-range>191-222</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B22">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<collab>R Core Team</collab>
<source><![CDATA[R: A language and environment for statistical computing]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Vienna, Austria ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[R Foundation for Statistical Computing]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B23">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Salazar]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[F. E.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Cuantificación del riesgo de incumplimiento en créditos de libre inversión: Universidad del Valle]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Estudios Gerenciales]]></source>
<year>2013</year>
<volume>29</volume>
<page-range>416-27</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B24">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Támara]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Aristizábal]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Velásquez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[E.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Matrices de transición en el análisis del riesgo crediticio como elemento fundamental en el cálculo de la pérdida esperada en una institución financiera colombiana]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Revista Ingenierías Universidad de Medellín]]></source>
<year>2012</year>
<volume>11</volume>
<numero>20</numero>
<issue>20</issue>
<page-range>105-14</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B25">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Walke]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A. G.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Fullerton]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[T. M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Tokle]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R. J.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Risk-based loan pricing consequences for credit unions]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Empirical Finance]]></source>
<year>2018</year>
<volume>47</volume>
<page-range>105-19</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B26">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Yu]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[F.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ching]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[W.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gu]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Siu]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[T.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Interacting default intensity with hidden Markov process]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Quantitative Finance]]></source>
<year>2017</year>
<volume>7</volume>
<numero>5</numero>
<issue>5</issue>
<page-range>781-94</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
</ref-list>
</back>
</article>
