<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2248-6046</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista Finanzas y Política Económica]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Finanz. polit. econ.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2248-6046</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Católica de Colombia]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2248-60462022000100075</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.v14.n1.2022.4</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Shocks de precios y términos de intercambio para commodities: el caso de Ecuador]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Price shocks and raw materials terms of trade: The case of Ecuador]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Troncoso Sepúlveda]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ricardo Andrés]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Pontificia Universidad Católica  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Santiago de Chile ]]></addr-line>
<country>Chile</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>14</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<fpage>75</fpage>
<lpage>98</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2248-60462022000100075&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2248-60462022000100075&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2248-60462022000100075&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Recientes trabajos han recomendado el uso de medidas de precios mundiales más desagregadas en la formulación de modelos empíricos y teóricos sobre ciclos de negocio, con lo cual han desafiado la hipótesis de que shocks a los términos de intercambio (TOT) son una fuente importante de fluctuaciones cíclicas en economías emergentes. El objetivo de este artículo es analizar el impacto sobre los ciclos económicos de shocks a precios de commodities y evaluar la capacidad de los TOT como proxy en modelos teóricos. Utilizando datos anuales para Ecuador, se estimó un SVAR en el cual múltiples precios transmiten las perturbaciones mundiales y un modelo MX con shocks exógenos a los TOT Los resultados muestran que los shocks explican entre el 23% y el 37% de las fluctuaciones en variables macroeconómicas domésticas, y que los términos de intercambio para commodities (CTOT) presentan el mejor rendimiento en el modelo MX en relación con una especificación empírica benchmark. Estos resultados corroboran la importancia de los shocks a precios de commodities, a la vez que revitalizan el rol de los TOT  JEL Classification: E32. F4T.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract Recent studies have recommended the use of more disaggregated world price measures when formulating empirical and theoretical models on business cycles, challenging thus the hypothesis that shocks to the terms of trade (TOT) are an essential source of cyclical fluctuations in emerging economies. This paper aims to analyze the impact of shocks to raw materials prices on business cycles, and to assess the capacity of TOT as a proxy in theoretical models. Using annual data for Ecuador, a SVAR was estimated in which multiple prices transmit global shocks, as well as an MX model with exogenous shocks to TOT. The results show that shocks explain between 23% and 37% of the fluctuations in domestic macroeconomic variables and that commodity terms of trade (CTOT) have the best performance in the MX model in relation to an empirical benchmark specification. These results corroborate the importance of shocks to commodity prices while revitalizing the role of TOT]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[ciclos económicos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[precio de commodities]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[shocks]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[términos de intercambio]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[business cycles]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[shocks]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[terms of trade]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[raw materials prices]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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