<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0120-0011</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista de la Facultad de Medicina]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[rev.fac.med.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0120-0011</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional de Colombia]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0120-00112020000400541</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.15446/revfacmed.v68n4.79516</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Mathematical modeling of the effects of atmospheric pressure on mosquito (Díptera: Culicidae) population density in Villa Clara, Cuba]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Modelación matemática del efecto de la presión atmosférica sobre la densidad poblacional de los mosquitos (Diptera: Culicidae) en Villa Clara, Cuba]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Fimia-Duarte]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Rigoberto]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Osés-Rodríguez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ricardo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Alarcón-Elbal]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Pedro María]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Aldaz-Cárdenas]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Jaime Wilfrido]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Roig-Boffill]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Bárbara Verónica]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Fé-Rodríguez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Pedro Yoelvys de la]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Ciencias Médicas de Villa Clara  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Santa Clara ]]></addr-line>
<country>Cuba</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Centro Meteorológico Provincial de Villa Clara-Santa Clara  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Villa Clara ]]></addr-line>
<country>Cuba</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Iberoamericana (UNIBE)  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Santo Domingo ]]></addr-line>
<country>Dominican Republic</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af4">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Estatal de Bolívar  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Provincia Bolívar ]]></addr-line>
<country>Ecuador</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af5">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Central «Marta Abreu» de Las Villas  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Villa Clara ]]></addr-line>
<country>Cuba</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>68</volume>
<numero>4</numero>
<fpage>541</fpage>
<lpage>549</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0120-00112020000400541&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0120-00112020000400541&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0120-00112020000400541&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract  Introduction: Mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) are considered one of the most versatile organisms in the world as they can breed in any pool of water, such as puddles or tanks. However, their reproduction is influenced by atmospheric variables that allow predicting their population density.  Objective: To assess the impact of atmospheric pressure on mosquito population density in the province of Villa Clara, Cuba, by means of a mathematical model based on a regressive objective regression (ROR) methodology.  Materials and methods: The development of the mathematical model to predict breeding sites was based on the number of breeding sites reported in the province of Villa Clara between 2000 and 2017, and the ROR model. Furthermore, a regression analysis was carried out using the IBM SPSS® version 19.0, which allowed obtaining models that explained 100% of the variance, with its corresponding standard error.  Results: With respect to the number of breeding sites, an increasing trend was observed in the municipality of Cifuentes, while the trend was downward in Ranchuelo and Caibarién. The municipalities of Santa Clara and Encrucijada had the highest and lowest standard deviation (13.432 vs. 5.968, respectively), which demonstrates great variability among the data of each municipality.  Conclusions: There is a close relationship between atmospheric pressure and mosquito population density since both total and specific larval densities increase as atmospheric pressure increases.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen  Introducción. Los mosquitos (Diptera: Culicidae) son uno de los organismos más versátiles del mundo, pues pueden reproducirse en cualquier depósito de agua, como charcos o tanques. Sin embargo, su reproducción está influenciada por variables atmosféricas que permiten predecir su densidad poblacional.  Objetivo. Evaluar el impacto de la presión atmosférica en la densidad poblacional de mosquitos en la provincia de Villa Clara, Cuba, mediante el uso de modelos matemáticos basados en la metodología de regresión objetiva regresiva (ROR).  Materiales y métodos. El desarrollo del modelo matemático de pronóstico de focos de reproducción se basó en el número de focos reportados en la provincia de Villa Clara entre 2000 y 2017, y en el modelo ROR. Además, se realizó un análisis de regresión mediante el programa IBM SPSS® versión 19.0, lo que permitió obtener modelos de regresión que explicaron el 100% de la varianza, con su error típico.  Resultados. Respecto a la cantidad de focos, se observó una tendencia al aumento en el municipio de Cifuentes, mientras que en Ranchuelo y Caibarién la tendencia fue a la reducción. Los municipios de Santa Clara y Encrucijada tuvieron la desviación estándar más alta y más baja, respectivamente (134.32 vs. 5.968), lo que evidencia una gran variabilidad entre los datos de cada municipio.  Conclusiones. Existe una estrecha relación entre la presión atmosférica y la densidad poblacional de mosquitos, ya que a medida que aumenta la presión atmosférica, aumentan las densidades larvales, tanto total como específicas.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Cuba]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Culicidae]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Forecasting]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Disease Vectors (MeSH)]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Cuba]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Culicidae]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Predicción]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Vectores de enfermedades (DeCS)]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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