<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0120-2596</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Lecturas de Economía]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Lect. Econ.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0120-2596</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad de Antioquia]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0120-25962017000100199</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.17533/udea.le.n86a08</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Comparación de pronósticos para la dinámica del turismo en Medellín, Colombia]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Comparing forecasts for tourism dynamics in Medellín, Colombia]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="fr"><![CDATA[Comparaison des prévisions pour la dynamique du tourisme dans la ville de Medellin, Colombie]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Valencia]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Marisol]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Vanegas]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Juan]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Correa]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Juan]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Restrepo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Jorge]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Institución Universitaria Tecnológico de Antioquia  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Fundación Universitaria Autóno ma de las Américas  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional de Colombia  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af4">
<institution><![CDATA[,Institución Universitaria Tecnológico de Antioquia  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>01</month>
<year>2017</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>01</month>
<year>2017</year>
</pub-date>
<numero>86</numero>
<fpage>199</fpage>
<lpage>230</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0120-25962017000100199&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0120-25962017000100199&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0120-25962017000100199&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen El turismo es un tema de interés para muchos países, pero en Colombia ha sido poco explorado. Conocer sobre periodos con mayor afluencia de turistas es importante para predecir la cobertura en servicios turísticos. En este trabajo se compara la estimación entre modelos de regresión clásica y bayesianos para elegir la mejor alternativa de predicción de la cantidad de turistas que arribarían a la ciudad de Medellín. Se busca también determinar las variables que más inciden sobre la llegada de turistas y los modelos que permiten ajustar mejor sus dinámicas. Dentro de los resultados obtenidos se observa mejor desempeño de los modelos bayesianos versus los clásicos. Además, la variable mes es significativa para explicar las demandas por parte de turistas colombianos y extranjeros. Los periodos de mayor afluencia de turistas se presentan entre diciembre-enero y junio-julio, comportamiento que se repite anualmente, lo cual es decisivo para la planeación de recursos hoteleros.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract Tourism is a topic of interest to many economies around the world, but it has received limited attention in Colombia. Knowing the periods of larger tourist inflows is important for predicting coverage in services for tourists. In this paper, we compare the estimation between classical and Bayesian regression in order to choose the best alternative to predict the number of tourist arrivals to Medellin. We also identify the most significant variables affecting the influx of tourists and the models providing better fit to the associated dynamics. According to our results, the Bayesian approach shows better estimates than the classic one. In addition, the variable month is significant to explain the demands for both Colombians and foreigners. The periods with the highest incidence of visits to the city are December-January and June-July, a pattern that repeats itself every year, which is crucial for planning hotel resources.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="fr"><p><![CDATA[Résumé Le tourisme est un sujet de recherche dans des nombreux pays, mais en Colombie il reste peu exploré. Par exemple, le fait de connaitre les périodes de l&#8217;année avec les plus de touristes permet de mieux prédire la couverture des services touristiques. Cet article établi une comparaison entre les estimations issues à partir des modèles classiques et des modèles de régression bayésienne, afin de choisir la meilleure méthode de prédire le nombre de touristes qui arrivent à la ville de Medellin. L&#8217;article vise également une étude de la détermination des variables qui expliquent l&#8217;arrivée des touristes, afin d&#8217;identifier les modèles qui mieux expliquent sa dynamique. Les résultats obtenus montrent que la performance des modèles bayésiens est beaucoup mieux que celle des modèles classiques. En outre, la variable « mois » est significatif dans l&#8217;étude de la demande des services touristiques, aussi dans le cas des touristes colombiens qu&#8217;étrangers. Les périodes de l&#8217;année avec le plus d&#8217;affluence sont Décembre-Janvier et Juin-Juillet. Il ságit d&#8217;une information très utile à la planification des ressources hôteliers.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[demanda turística]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[evaluación de modelos y selección]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[métodos de pronóstico y predicción]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[estadística bayesiana]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Medellín]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[tourism demand]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[model evaluation and selection]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[forecasting and prediction methods]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Bayesian statistics]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Medellín.]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="fr"><![CDATA[demande de services touristiques]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="fr"><![CDATA[évaluation et sélection des modèles]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="fr"><![CDATA[méthodes de prédiction et de prévision]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="fr"><![CDATA[statistique bayésienne]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="fr"><![CDATA[Medellin.]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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