<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0120-2596</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Lecturas de Economía]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Lect. Econ.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0120-2596</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad de Antioquia]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0120-25962023000200033</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.17533/udea.le.n99a352279</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in Colombia: Thousands of VEC Models Approach]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Tipo de cambio de equilibrio real en Colombia: aproximación mediante miles de modelos VEC]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="fr"><![CDATA[Taux de change d&#8217;équilibre réel en Colombie: approximation à l&#8217;aide de miles de modèles VEC]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Salazar-Díaz]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Andrea]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Garavito-Acosta]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Aarón Levi]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Restrepo-Ángel]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Sergio]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Arcila-Agudelo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Leidy Viviana]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,asalazdi@banrep.gov.co  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,agaravac@banrep.gov.co  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,srestran@banrep.gov.co  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af4">
<institution><![CDATA[,viviargu3@gmail.com  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2023</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2023</year>
</pub-date>
<numero>99</numero>
<fpage>33</fpage>
<lpage>78</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0120-25962023000200033&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0120-25962023000200033&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0120-25962023000200033&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen La metodología Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) sugiere muchas variables como fundamentales de la tasa de cambio real de equilibrio (TCRE). Esto genera incertidumbre en la especificación de los modelos debido a que la TCRE depende y varía, a menudo de manera drástica, del conjunto particular de variables elegidas. Abordamos este problema estimando miles de especifica- ciones de vectores de corrección de errores (VEC) para datos colombianos entre el primer trimestre de 2000 y el cuarto trimestre de 2019. De acuerdo con una extensa revisión de la literatura, empleamos treinta y cinco proxies clasificadas entre cinco grupos fijos de fundamentales económicos que subyacen la TCRE: endeudamiento, sector fiscal, productividad, términos de intercambio y diferenciales de tasas de interés. Nuestro enfoque deriva una distribución empírica de la TCRE que nos permite afirmar con mayor certeza, entre cientos de especificaciones económicas plausibles, si el tipo de cambio real está desalineado o en equilibrio.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) models propose a wide range of variables as potential drivers of equilibrium real exchange rates (ERER). This gives rise to model uncertainty issues due to the often drastic dependence and variability of ERER on a particular set of chosen variables. We address this issue by estimating thousands of Vector Error Correction (VEC) specifications using Colombian data spanning from the first quarter of 2000 to the fourth quarter of 2019. Based on an extensive literature review, we employ thirty-five proxies categorized among five fixed groups of economic fundamentals that underlie the ERER: Indebtedness, Fiscal sector, Productivity, Terms-of-Trade, and Interest Rate Differentials. Our approach derives an empirical distribution of ERER that allows us to determine with greater certainty, among hundreds of plausible economic specifications, whether the real exchange rate is misaligned or in equilibrium.  JEL Classification:  F31, F32, F41, C32.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="fr"><p><![CDATA[Résumé Les modèles comportementaux de taux de change d&#8217;équilibre (BEER) suggèrent de nom- breuses variables comme moteurs possibles des taux de change réels d&#8217;équilibre (ERER). Cela donne lieu à des problèmes d&#8217;incertitude du modèle, car le TREER dépend et varie, souvent de manière drastique, d&#8217;un ensemble particulier de variables choisies. Nous avons résolu ce problème en estimant des milliers de spécifications de correction d&#8217;erreurs vectorielles (VEC) pour les données colombiennes entre le premier trimestre 2000 et le quatrième trimestre 2019. Sur la base d&#8217;un examen approfondi de la lit- térature, nous avons utilisé trente-cinq proxys classés parmi cinq groupes de fondamentaux économiques fixés sous-jacents aux ERER: endettement, secteur budgétaire, productivité, termes de l&#8217;échange et dif- férentiels de taux d&#8217;intérêt. Notre approche dérive une distribution ERER empirique qui nous permet d&#8217;établir avec plus de certitude, parmi des centaines de spécifications économiques plausibles, si le taux de change réel est désaligné ou en équilibre.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Real exchange rate]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[VEC]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[BEER]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Productivity]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Terms-of-Trade]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[VEC]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[BEER]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[tipo de cambio real]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[productividad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[términos de intercambio.]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="fr"><![CDATA[VEC]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="fr"><![CDATA[BEER]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="fr"><![CDATA[taux de change réel]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="fr"><![CDATA[productivité]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="fr"><![CDATA[termes de l&#8217;échange.]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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