<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0121-4772</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Cuadernos de Economía]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Cuad. Econ.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0121-4772</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional de Colombia]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0121-47722018000200287</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.15446/cuad.econ.v37n74.54299</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[LONG-TERM SEASONAL FORWARDS IN ELECTRICITY GENERATION MARKETS: AN APPLICATION TO COLOMBIA]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Forwards estacionales de largo plazo en mercados de generación de electricidad: una aplicación en Colombia]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="fr"><![CDATA[Contrats saisonniers à long terme sur les marchés de production d&#8217;électricité : une application en Colombie.]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="pt"><![CDATA[Forwards sazonais de longo prazo nos mercados de geração de eletricidade: uma aplicação na Colômbia]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Tobón-Orozco]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[David]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Velilla]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Esteban]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Barrientos]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Jorge]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Villada]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Fernando]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[López-Lezama]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Jesús]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Antioquia  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Medellín ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Antioquia  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Medellín ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Antioquia  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Medellín ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af4">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Antioquia  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Medellín ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af5">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Antioquia,  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Medellín ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>37</volume>
<numero>74</numero>
<fpage>287</fpage>
<lpage>313</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0121-47722018000200287&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0121-47722018000200287&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0121-47722018000200287&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract Seasonal components have been found in the price of most commodities, where prices are largely determined by the anticipation of seasonal demand and/or supply. This paper presents a methodology to determine seasonal forward prices in the electricity generation markets. A Cournot competition to characterize this market is assumed. Forward prices are calculated in accordance with the demand elasticity of the forwards and spot price through a differential or &#8220;gap&#8221; that represents the risk premium for the current forwards, plus some non-observable heterogeneities. The distribution of the given quantities in seasonal contracts is carried out through the classic portfolio theory. This methodology is applied to the Colombian case, and shows that it will be more profitable for generators to sell the proposed seasonal hydric forwards. JEL: D43, D61, L13, L43.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Los componentes estacionales se encuentran en los precios de la mayoría de los commodities, en los cuales los precios se determinan, en gran medida, por la anticipación de la estacionalidad en la oferta y la demanda. Este artículo presenta una metodología para determinar precios estacionales en forwards en mercados de generación de electricidad. Un juego de Cournot se considera para caracterizar este mercado. Los precios forward se construyen de acuerdo con la elasticidad de la demanda a los forward y el precio spot por medio de un diferencial que representa el premio por riesgo en los forward actuales más una heterogeneidad no observable. La distribución de estas cantidades en contratos estacionales se realiza mediante la teoría clásica de portafolio. Esta metodología se aplica al caso colombiano, mostrando que es más rentable para los generadores vender los forward hídricos estacionales propuestos. JEL: D43, D61, L13, L43.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="fr"><p><![CDATA[Résumé Les composants saisonniers se trouvent dans les prix de la plupart des commodités, où les prix sont établis, en grande partie, par l&#8217;anticipation de la saisonnalité dans l&#8217;offre et la demande. Cet article présente une méthodologie pour établir les prix saisonniers dans les forwards (contrats à terme) sur les marchés de production d&#8217;électricité. On recourt à un jeu de Cournot pour caractériser ce marché. On construit les prix forward en fonction de l&#8217;élasticité de la demande aux forwards, et le prix spot au moyen d&#8217;un différentiel qui représente la prime de risque dans les forwards actuels plus une hétérogénéité non observable. La répartition de ces quantités dans les contrats saisonniers se réalise au moyen de la théorie classique du portefeuille. On applique cette méthodologie au cas colombien et on montre qu&#8217;il est plus rentable pour les producteurs de vendre les forwards hydriques saisonniers proposés. JEL : D43, D61, L13, L43.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="pt"><p><![CDATA[Resumo Os componentes sazonais são encontrados nos preços da maioria das commodities, em que os preços são determinados, em grande parte, pela antecipação da sazonalidade na oferta e na demanda. Este artigo apresenta uma metodologia para determinar preços sazonais nos mercados a termo de geração de eletricidade. Um jogo de Cournot é considerado para caracterizar este mercado. Os preços a termo são construídos de acordo com a elasticidade da demanda a termo e o preço à vista por meio de um diferencial que representa o prêmio por risco nos atuais contratos mais a heterogeneidade não observável. A distribuição desses valores em contratos sazonais é feita por meio da teoria clássica do portfólio. Essa metodologia é aplicada ao caso colombiano, mostrando que é mais lucrativo para os geradores vender os insumos sazonais propostos. JEL: D43, D61, L13, L43.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Electricity markets]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[seasonal forwards]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Cournot equilibrium]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[portfolio theory]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[game theory]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[mercados eléctricos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[forward estacionales]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[equilibrio de Cournot]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[teoría de portafolio]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[teoría de juegos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="fr"><![CDATA[marchés électriques]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="fr"><![CDATA[forwards saisonniers]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="fr"><![CDATA[équilibre de Cournot]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="fr"><![CDATA[théorie du portefeuille]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="fr"><![CDATA[théorie des jeux.]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[mercados elétricos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[forward sazonais]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[equilíbrio de Cournot]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[teoria de portfólio]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[teoria de jogos.]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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