<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0122-3461</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Ingeniería y Desarrollo]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Ing. Desarro.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0122-3461</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Fundación Universidad del Norte]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0122-34612024000200224</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.14482/inde.42.02.612.049</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Pronóstico y análisis de la confiabilidad de una central hidroeléctrica en Colombia implementando una tasa de fallas móvil en el tiempo]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Forecasting and analysis of the reliability of a hydroelectric power plant in Colombia through the application of a time-varying failure rate]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[RÍOS VELÁSQUEZ]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[ÁNGEL]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[MANCIPE BARRERO]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[BRAYAN STEVEN]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[GARCÍA NAVARRO]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[JUAN GUILLERMO]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[JARAMILLO ROMERO]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[MARIO ALONSO]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma de Manizales  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Manizales Caldas]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma de Manizales  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Manizales Caldas]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma de Manizales  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Manizales Caldas]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af4">
<institution><![CDATA[,Central Hidroeléctrica de Caldas  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Manizales Caldas]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>42</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<fpage>224</fpage>
<lpage>243</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0122-34612024000200224&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0122-34612024000200224&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0122-34612024000200224&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen La generación energética en Colombia está fuertemente ligada a las centrales hidroeléctricas, lo que hace crucial la optimización de tareas de mantenimiento para garantizar su máxima disponibilidad. Por tal motivo, este trabajo se centra en analizar la confiabilidad de una central hidroeléctrica con el fin de respaldar la toma de decisiones en la planeación del mantenimiento. Esta investigación se basó en el histórico de datos de la planta, en el que se registran los reportes que causan su indisponibilidad. A partir de esta información se determinó el MTBF (tiempo medio entres fallas) de los equipos y su confiabilidad, así como la de las dos unidades generadoras que componen la central. Finalmente, se implementó un método basado en el indicador técnico EMA (media móvil exponencial), que permitió pronosticar la tendencia de la confiabilidad en el tiempo. Los resultados obtenidos brindaron una evaluación del estado actual de la central hidroeléctrica y permitieron identificar los equipos críticos en términos de fallas, a los que se deben orientar recursos para fortalecer la disponibilidad de la planta.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract Power generation in Colombia is strongly linked to hydroelectric power plants, which makes it crucial to optimize maintenance tasks to ensure maximum availability. For this reason, this work focuses on analyzing the reliability of a hydroelectric power plant in order to support decision-making in maintenance planning. The research is based on the historical data of the power plant, in which the reports that cause its unavailability are recorded. From this information, the mean time between failures (MTBF) of the equipment and its reliability was determined, as well as that of the two generating units that make up the power plant. Finally, a method based on the technical indicator EMA (exponential moving average) was applied to predict the reliability trend over time. The results obtained provided an assessment of the status of the hydroelectric power plant and made it possible to identify the critical equipment in terms of failures, to which resources should be allocated to strengthen the plant's availability.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[central hidroeléctrica]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[confiabilidad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[distribución exponencial]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[media móvil]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[MTBF]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[hydroelectric power plant]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[reliability]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[exponential distribution]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[moving average]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[MTBF]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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