Abstract

RUBIO GUERRERO, Germán  and  SANCHEZ CAIMAN, Pedro José. Forecasting in the industrial SMEs of Ibagué: variables that determine their application. cuad.adm. [online]. 2017, vol.33, n.58, pp.18-29. ISSN 0120-4645.  https://doi.org/10.25100/cdea.v33i58.4502.

Forecasts have become an essential component of organizational strategy. In this sense, the objective of this paper is to present the variables that determine the practice of forecasting in the small and medium industrial enterprises of Ibagué, Tolima, Colombia. To fulfill this purpose, a logistic regression model was used, which incorporated a strictly qualitative dependent variable: the company makes forecasts for its different operations and some independent variables, which may be qualitative or quantitative, being in this case all qualitative. In order to meet the stated objective, a mixed research process was carried out in the year 2014, which included the qualitative and quantitative approaches, to a stratified random sample of 76 SMEs from a total population of 93 reported by the Chamber of Commerce of Ibagué, to which a structured questionnaire was applied. The study allowed to conclude that of all the variables analyzed in the research, the attributes “prognoses influence in a significant way in the organizational performance”, “in the company they combine qualitative and quantitative forecasts for decision making” and “the company resorts to external information to perform their forecasts”, determine the favorable attitude of these entrepreneurs to apply forecasting techniques in their organizations.

Keywords : Production management; Supply chain; Inventories; Logistics; Forecasting; Industrial SMEs; Operations planning.

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