Abstract

GOMEZ CARDONA, Sebastián  and  JARAMILLO, Alberto. Is the economic situation a result from business expectations? An analysis of EOIC, 1990-2008. Perf. de Coyunt. Econ. [online]. 2009, n.14, pp.135-158. ISSN 1657-4214.

Since the appearance of rational expectations theory, the analysis of the predictions of economic agents has become a very important issue in recent economic theories. In this paper Granger, Sims and Toda and Yamamoto ''Non-Causality'' tests are estimated in order to determine if firm's expectations cause industrial conjuncture in Colombia. Private surveys and official data are used. Results are conclusive: expectations affect the future values of industrial variables such as production, employment and sells. Furthermore, these variables, along with past expectations and demand (measured through inventories and orders) are essential when firm expectations are created.

Keywords : firm behavior; business expectations; economic conditions; sales; employment.

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