¹Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Centro de Ciências Naturais e Exatas, Departamento de Estatística, Santa Maria, Brasil. Professor. Email: augusto.silva@ufsm.br
²Universidade Federal de Lavras, Departamento de Ciências Exatas, Lavras, Brasil. Professor. Email: macufla@dex.ufla.br

This present work aims to propose an estimator in order to estimate the probability of success of a binomial model that incorporates the extra-binomial variation generated by zero-inflated samples. The construction of this estimator was carried out with a theoretical basis given by the Holder function and its performance was evaluated through Monte Carlo simulation considering different sample sizes, parametric values (π), and excess of zero proportions (γ). It was concluded that for the situations in (γ = 0.20) and (γ = 0.50) that the proposed estimator presents promising results based on the specified margin of error.

Key words: Binomial Distribution, Monte Carlo simulation, Robust Estimator, Robustness.

El presente trabajo tiene como objetivo proponer un estimador para estimar la probabilidad de éxito de un modelo binomial que incorpora la variación extra-binomial generada por muestras cero-inflados. La construcción de este estimador se llevó a cabo con una base teórica dada por la función Holder y su desempeño fue evaluado a través de la simulación de Monte Carlo considerando diferentes tamaños de muestra, valores paramétricos (π), y el exceso de proporciones cero (γ). Se concluyó que para las situaciones en (γ = 0,20) y (γ = 0,50) que el estimador propuesto presenta resultados prometedores basados en el margen de error especificado..

Palabras clave: distribución binomial, estimador robusto, simulación Monte Carlo, robustez.

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