¹University of Louisville, School of Public Health and Information Sciences, Department of Bioinformatics and Biostatistics, Louisville, United States. PhD. Email: ruiqi.liu@louisville.edu
²University of Louisville, School of Public Health and Information Sciences, Department of Bioinformatics and Biostatistics, Louisville, United States. PhD. Email: jeremy.gaskins@louisville.edu
³University of Louisville, School of Public Health and Information Sciences, Department of Bioinformatics and Biostatistics, Louisville, United States. PhD. Email: ritendranath.mitra@louisville.edu
⁴University of Louisville, School of Public Health and Information Sciences, Department of Bioinformatics and Biostatistics, Louisville, United States. PhD. Email: dongfeng.wu@louisville.edu

Early detection combined with effective treatment are the only ways to fight against cancer, and cancer screening is the primary technique for early detection. Although mass cancer screening has been carried out for decades, there are many unsolved problems, and the statistical theory of cancer screening is still under developed. Screening sensitivity, time duration in the preclinical state, and time duration in the disease free state are the three key parameters, which are critical in cancer screening, since all other estimates are functions of the three key parameters. Lead time is the diagnosis time advanced by screening, and it serves as a measurement of effectiveness of screening programs. In this article, we provide a review for major probability models and statistical methodologies that have been developed on the estimation of the three key parameters and the lead time distributions. These methods can be applied to screening of other chronic diseases after slight modifications.

Key words: Cancer, Lead time, Sensitivity, Sojourn time, Transition\linebreak density.

Detección temprana combinada con la efectividad de los tratamientos son las únicas formas de combatir en contra del cáncer, y el examen de búsqueda temprana es la técnica principal para detección temprana. A pesar de que la búsqueda temprana de la masa cancerígena se ha realizado pro décadas, hay muchos problemas sin resolver, y la teoría estadística de la búsqueda del cáncer está todavía en desarrollo. Los tres parámetros claves: sensibilidad de la búsqueda, la duración en tiempo en el estado pre-clínico, y la duración en tiempo de la enfermedad en estado libre, son críticos en la búsqueda de cáncer; esto es porque todos los otros estimadores son funciones de estos tres parámetros claves. El tiempo de ventaja es el tiempo de diagnóstico avanzado por la búsqueda, y sirve como una medida de la efectividad de los programas de búsqueda. En este artículo, presentamos una revisión de los modelos de probabilidad principales y las metodologías estadísticas que han sido desarrolladas en la estimación de los tres parámetros claves y las distribuciones del tiempo de ventaja. Estos métodos pueden ser aplicados a la búsqueda de otras enfermedades crónicas con modificaciones menores.

Palabras clave: búsqueda de cáncer, densidad de transición, sensibilidad, tiempo de estadía, tiempo de ventaja.

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